Why Nigeria’s Vaccine Funding Transition Must Succeed Before Gavi Support Ends

The Clock Is Ticking on Nigeria's Vaccine Future

Imagine trying to immunize a nation of 200 million people—while losing the bulk of your external support within 5 years. That's the challenge Nigeria faces as it moves toward self-financing its national immunization program, following a gradual transition away from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

If this transition falters, the consequences could be devastating: rising vaccine prices, disrupted supply chains, and weakened immunization systems. In short? A reversal of hard-earned gains, just as the country fights to reach millions of unvaccinated children.

The Numbers Behind the Urgency

• Nigeria currently faces a $200 million annual funding gap for vaccines.
• As of mid-2025, it has the highest number of zero-dose children globally—over 2.2 million.
• Coverage for key vaccines like DTP3 was just 57% in 2020, far below the 84% goal Nigeria aims to achieve by 2028.
• Although government contributions to immunization rose from 14% to 65% between 2017 and 2022, funding still makes up less than 5% of the national health budget.

These figures paint a stark picture: unless Nigeria strengthens its fiscal commitment, millions of children could be left behind—with outbreaks of preventable diseases like measles, meningitis, and polio becoming an all-too-real possibility.

So What's the Plan?

The Nigerian government has a roadmap—but executing it won't be easy.

Through its 10-year Strategy for Immunization and Primary Healthcare System Strengthening (NSIPSS), Nigeria aims to improve vaccine equity, streamline funding flows, and gradually replace external support with local resources.

Proposed measures include:

• A first-line charge mechanism to prioritize immunization in national budgets
• Local vaccine production initiatives to reduce procurement costs
• A 9% Communication Service Tax on electronic services that could bring in significant monthly revenue
• Tiered levies on sectors like telecom, aviation, hospitality, alcohol, tobacco, and sugary drinks

If implemented effectively, these solutions could help close the funding gap while laying the groundwork for long-term sustainability.

But Here's the Risk

The transition isn't just about money. It's about infrastructure, political will, and timing.

A poorly managed shift could mean:

• Loss of access to subsidized vaccine pricing
• Reduced technical and operational support from Gavi partners
• Delays in fund disbursement and lack of accountability at the sub-national level

These gaps don't just threaten immunization rates—they weaken entire health systems and endanger public trust.

How Experts Are Framing the Transition

To better understand what Nigeria's transition entails—and why it matters—recent public conversations have begun to highlight lessons from the ground. One such discussion brings together perspectives from Chika Offor of the Vaccine Network for Disease Control and Professor Emmanuel Alhassan, Global Health Advocacy Incubator's Nigeria Country Coordinator.

Their conversation examines what progress has been made so far, the barriers that persist, and the policy levers that could make or break the transition. Themes like political will, sub-national accountability, and the role of civil society in budget advocacy take center stage—offering a clearer picture of what sustainable, locally funded immunization could look like in practice.

Final Shot

Transitions like Nigeria's are never simple—but they are necessary. With the right policies, smart financing, and strong advocacy, the country has a chance to not only sustain its immunization progress but expand it.

If you're curious about how nations navigate this complex terrain, on-the-ground organizations like Global Health Advocacy Incubator offer a front-row seat to the decisions shaping global health behind the scenes.